A. Krueger vs L. Boisson — prediction

The model makes A. Krueger the favorite with a 72% win probability, against L. Boisson's 28% — a solid favorite, though Boisson keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.39; the offered odds are around @1.40 (a 71% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: #58 vs #299 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 72%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 28 out of every 100 times Boisson wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.