M. Landaluce vs J. Draper — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #64 vs #143 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches
›Hard specialist: performs +13% above baseline (50% career on the surface)
›Model 56% vs market 29% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
!Coming off 5 losses in a row
The model makes M. Landaluce the favorite with a 56% win probability, against J. Draper's 44% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.77; the offered odds are around @3.40 (a 29% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #64 vs #143 (better ranked); 3/10 in recent matches; performs +13% above baseline (50% career on the surface); model 56% vs market 29% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 56%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 44 out of every 100 times Draper wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 5 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.