MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-12
● HARD
H. Dart vs M. Uchijima — prediction
DARTWIN PROBABILITYUCHIJIMA
53%
model prob.
@2.20
odds · 45% impl.
⚔H2H 3–0 Dart⏱Rest 11d vs 8d◐Hard 33%🎾Serve 51%📈Form 5/10 · 2✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
22°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
86%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
17 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #144 vs #111
›Recent form: 2/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›More rested: 28d vs opponent's 23d
›Model 53% vs market 45% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
WATCH FOR
!Returning from a long layoff (28d) — possible rustiness
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.