C. Liu vs S. Kraus — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #116 vs #81
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
The model makes C. Liu the favorite with a 56% win probability, against S. Kraus's 44% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.79; the offered odds are around @1.65 (a 61% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #116 vs #81; 7/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 56%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 44 out of every 100 times Kraus wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.