A. Korneeva vs A. Charaeva — prediction

Cincinnati

KORNEEVAWIN PROBABILITYCHARAEVA

53%

model prob.

@1.23

odds · 81% impl.

◐Hard 50%🎾Serve 56%📈Form 7/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

23°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

89%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

14 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #89 vs #114 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches

›Hard specialist: performs +6% above baseline (53% career on the surface)

›More rested: 25d vs opponent's 19d

›Model 53% vs market 81% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

WATCH FOR

!Returning from a long layoff (25d) — possible rustiness

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.89

fair odds

−34.8%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes A. Korneeva the favorite with a 53% win probability, against A. Charaeva's 47% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.89; the offered odds are around @1.23 (a 81% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #89 vs #114 (better ranked); 4/10 in recent matches; performs +6% above baseline (53% career on the surface); 25d vs opponent's 19d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 53%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 47 out of every 100 times Charaeva wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (25d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Korneeva vs A. Charaeva — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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