Y. Yuan vs R. Zarazua — prediction

The model makes Y. Yuan the favorite with a 51% win probability, against R. Zarazua's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.98; the offered odds are around @2.02 (a 50% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: #128 vs #73; 5/10 in recent matches; performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface); 21d vs opponent's 10d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Zarazua wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (21d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.