Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #129 vs #110
›Recent form: 2/10 in recent matches
›Model 51% vs market 25% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (41d) — possible rustiness
The model makes Nicolas Mejia the favorite with a 51% win probability, against Jacob Fearnley's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.96; the offered odds are around @4.00 (a 25% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #129 vs #110; 2/10 in recent matches; model 51% vs market 25% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Fearnley wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (41d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.