Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #49 vs #131 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 5 wins in a row
The model makes L. van Assche the favorite with a 69% win probability, against G. Heide's 31% — a solid favorite, though Heide keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.44; the offered odds are around @1.35 (a 74% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #49 vs #131 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 5 wins in a row.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 69%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 31 out of every 100 times Heide wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.