MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-11
● HARD
L. Tararudee vs E. Jones — prediction
TARARUDEEWIN PROBABILITYJONES
61%
model prob.
@1.52
odds · 66% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Tararudee◐Hard 50%🎾Serve 62%📈Form 9/10 · 2✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
34°C
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humidity◇
46%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
21 km/h
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #79 vs #134 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Model 61% vs market 66% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.