A. Korneeva vs V. Lepchenko — prediction

The model makes A. Korneeva the favorite with a 61% win probability, against V. Lepchenko's 39% — a solid favorite, though Lepchenko keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.64; the offered odds are around @1.13 (a 88% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #89 vs #176 (better ranked); 4/10 in recent matches; performs +6% above baseline (53% career on the surface); model 61% vs market 88% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 61%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 39 out of every 100 times Lepchenko wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (24d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.