T. Gentzsch vs A. Nedic — prediction

Hamburg

Result pending

GENTZSCHWIN PROBABILITYNEDIC

62%

Elo prob.

@1.66

odds · 60% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Gentzsch⏱Rest 1d vs 13d🎾Serve 66%📈Form 8/10 · 5✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

20°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

64%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

13 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1860 vs 1774 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 324 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.61

fair odds

+3.0%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes T. Gentzsch the favorite with a 62% win probability, against A. Nedic's 38% — a solid favorite, though Nedic keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.61; the offered odds are around @1.66 (a 60% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1860 vs 1774 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 324 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 38 out of every 100 times Nedic wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of T. Gentzsch vs A. Nedic — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access