MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-10
● HARD
E. Svitolina vs E. Alexandrova — prediction
Toronto
Result pending
SVITOLINAWIN PROBABILITYALEXANDROVA
62%
model prob.
@1.38
odds · 72% impl.
⚔H2H 3–1 Svitolina⏱Rest 1d vs 2d◐Hard 69%🎾Serve 55%📈Form 6/10 · 3✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
25°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
86%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
15 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #10 vs #19 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 3-1 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 64% career on the surface
›Model 62% vs market 72% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.