I. Swiatek vs M. Kostyuk — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #3 vs #13 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 3-1 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 78% career on the surface
›More rested: 35d vs opponent's 30d
!Returning from a long layoff (35d) — possible rustiness
The model makes I. Swiatek the favorite with a 58% win probability, against M. Kostyuk's 42% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.72; the offered odds are around @1.70 (a 59% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #3 vs #13 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 3-1 in favor; 78% career on the surface.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 58%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 42 out of every 100 times Kostyuk wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (35d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.