Arthur Fils vs Cameron Norrie — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #22 vs #39 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›Solid on Hard: 61% career on the surface
›More rested: 11d vs opponent's 7d
›Model 62% vs market 69% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
The model makes Arthur Fils the favorite with a 62% win probability, against Cameron Norrie's 38% — a solid favorite, though Norrie keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.61; the offered odds are around @1.45 (a 69% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #22 vs #39 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 61% career on the surface; 11d vs opponent's 7d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 62%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 38 out of every 100 times Norrie wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.