S. Mitsui vs T. Yamanaka — prediction

M15 Astana 2 (Kazakhstan)

Result pending

MITSUIWIN PROBABILITYYAMANAKA

74%

Elo prob.

@1.16

odds · 86% impl.

📈Form 6/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

26°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

36%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

12 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1692 vs 1515 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 102 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.36

fair odds

−14.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes S. Mitsui the favorite with a 74% win probability, against T. Yamanaka's 26% — a solid favorite, though Yamanaka keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.36; the offered odds are around @1.16 (a 86% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1692 vs 1515 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 102 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 26 out of every 100 times Yamanaka wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of S. Mitsui vs T. Yamanaka — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access