MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-07
● HARD
N. Osaka vs E. Mertens — prediction
Toronto
Result pending
OSAKAWIN PROBABILITYMERTENS
63%
model prob.
@1.42
odds · 70% impl.
⚔H2H 2–2 Osaka◐Hard 74%🎾Serve 66%📈Form 7/10
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
23°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
88%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
13 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #13 vs #27 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 4-2 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 74% career on the surface
›Model 63% vs market 70% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.