M. Basing vs A. Ghibaudo — prediction

Istanbul 2 (Turkey)

Result pending

BASINGWIN PROBABILITYGHIBAUDO

63%

Elo prob.

@1.64

odds · 61% impl.

🎾Serve 62%📈Form 6/10 · 2✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

30°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

55%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

19 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1791 vs 1698 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 115 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.58

fair odds

+3.6%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes M. Basing the favorite with a 63% win probability, against A. Ghibaudo's 37% — a solid favorite, though Ghibaudo keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.58; the offered odds are around @1.64 (a 61% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1791 vs 1698 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 115 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 37 out of every 100 times Ghibaudo wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of M. Basing vs A. Ghibaudo — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access