MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-07
● HARD
L. Samsonova vs M. Joint — prediction
Toronto
Result pending
SAMSONOVAWIN PROBABILITYJOINT
56%
model prob.
@1.44
odds · 69% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Samsonova◐Hard 48%🎾Serve 60%📈Form 7/10 · 2✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
23°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
88%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
13 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #70 vs #76 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
›Model 56% vs market 69% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.