I. Simakin vs F. Bax — prediction

Istanbul 2 (Turkey)

Result pending

SIMAKINWIN PROBABILITYBAX

54%

Elo prob.

@1.67

odds · 60% impl.

⚔H2H 0–1 Simakin🎾Serve 64%📈Form 5/10 · 2✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

30°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

57%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

18 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1757 vs 1728 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 257 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.85

fair odds

−9.5%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes I. Simakin the favorite with a 54% win probability, against F. Bax's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.85; the offered odds are around @1.67 (a 60% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1757 vs 1728 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 257 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Bax wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of I. Simakin vs F. Bax — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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