I. Jovic vs A. Korneeva — prediction

The model makes I. Jovic the favorite with a 73% win probability, against A. Korneeva's 27% — a solid favorite, though Korneeva keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.37; the offered odds are around @1.46 (a 68% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #16 vs #90 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 65% career on the surface; 33d vs opponent's 20d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 73%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 27 out of every 100 times Korneeva wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (33d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.