Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — prediction

Montreal

Result pending

MICHELSENWIN PROBABILITYAGUILAR

57%

model prob.

@1.40

odds · 71% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Michelsen◐Hard 56%🎾Serve 67%📈Form 9/10 · 2✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

27°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

69%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

7 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #40 vs #59 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches

›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor

›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks

›Model 57% vs market 71% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.74

fair odds

−19.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes Alex Michelsen the favorite with a 57% win probability, against Daniel Merida Aguilar's 43% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.74; the offered odds are around @1.40 (a 71% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #40 vs #59 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 1-0 in favor; 3 matches in the last 2 weeks.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 57%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 43 out of every 100 times Aguilar wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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