S. Mitsui vs Y. Tanaka — prediction

M15 Astana 2 (Kazakhstan)

MITSUIWIN PROBABILITYTANAKA

79%

Elo prob.

@1.28

odds · 78% impl.

📈Form 6/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

25°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

46%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

10 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1687 vs 1454 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 101 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.26

fair odds

+1.4%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes S. Mitsui the favorite with a 79% win probability, against Y. Tanaka's 21% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.26; the offered odds are around @1.28 (a 78% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1687 vs 1454 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 101 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 21 out of every 100 times Tanaka wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of S. Mitsui vs Y. Tanaka — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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