K. Filar vs A. Aleshchev — prediction

The model makes K. Filar the favorite with a 79% win probability, against A. Aleshchev's 21% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.26; the offered odds are around @1.08 (a 93% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1581 vs 1350 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 105 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 21 out of every 100 times Aleshchev wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.