MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-06
● HARD
E. Svitolina vs A. Potapova — prediction
Toronto
SVITOLINAWIN PROBABILITYPOTAPOVA
60%
model prob.
@1.43
odds · 70% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Svitolina◐Hard 69%🎾Serve 53%📈Form 6/10
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
28°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
59%
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Wind◇
13 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #10 vs #27 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 64% career on the surface
›Model 60% vs market 70% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.