E. Rybakina vs A. Li — prediction

Toronto

RYBAKINAWIN PROBABILITYLI

77%

model prob.

@1.21

odds · 83% impl.

◐Hard 78%🎾Serve 63%📈Form 5/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

28°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

59%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

13 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #2 vs #31 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches

›Solid on Hard: 73% career on the surface

›More rested: 33d vs opponent's 9d

›Model 77% vs market 83% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

WATCH FOR

!Returning from a long layoff (33d) — possible rustiness

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.30

fair odds

−7.0%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes E. Rybakina the favorite with a 77% win probability, against A. Li's 23% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.30; the offered odds are around @1.21 (a 83% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #2 vs #31 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; 73% career on the surface; 33d vs opponent's 9d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 77%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 23 out of every 100 times Li wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (33d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of E. Rybakina vs A. Li — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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