A. Fils vs M. Navone — prediction

Montreal

FILSWIN PROBABILITYNAVONE

71%

model prob.

@1.37

odds · 73% impl.

⚔H2H 0–1 Fils◐Hard 65%🎾Serve 67%📈Form 7/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

27°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

70%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

6 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #22 vs #47 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches

›Solid on Hard: 61% career on the surface

Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.41

fair odds

−2.9%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes A. Fils the favorite with a 71% win probability, against M. Navone's 29% — a solid favorite, though Navone keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.41; the offered odds are around @1.37 (a 73% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: #22 vs #47 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 61% career on the surface.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 71%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 29 out of every 100 times Navone wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of A. Fils vs M. Navone — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access