A. Anisimova vs N. Bartunkova — prediction

The model makes A. Anisimova the favorite with a 71% win probability, against N. Bartunkova's 29% — a solid favorite, though Bartunkova keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.41; the offered odds are around @1.51 (a 66% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #6 vs #44 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 65% career on the surface; 33d vs opponent's 14d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 71%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 29 out of every 100 times Bartunkova wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (33d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.