A. Anisimova vs L. Tararudee — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #6 vs #82 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Solid on Hard: 65% career on the surface
›More rested: 31d vs opponent's 11d
›Model 76% vs market 69% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (31d) — possible rustiness
The model makes A. Anisimova the favorite with a 76% win probability, against L. Tararudee's 24% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.31; the offered odds are around @1.44 (a 69% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #6 vs #82 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 65% career on the surface; 31d vs opponent's 11d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 76%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 24 out of every 100 times Tararudee wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (31d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.