V. Gaubas vs M. Houkes — prediction

Hagen

GAUBASWIN PROBABILITYHOUKES

63%

Elo prob.

@1.42

odds · 70% impl.

⚔H2H 0–2 Gaubas⏱Rest 2d vs 6d◐Clay 43%🎾Serve 63%📈Form 5/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Surface feeds the model — surface specialization is one of its factors.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1832 vs 1740 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 304 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.59

fair odds

−10.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes V. Gaubas the favorite with a 63% win probability, against M. Houkes's 37% — a solid favorite, though Houkes keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.59; the offered odds are around @1.42 (a 70% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1832 vs 1740 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 304 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 37 out of every 100 times Houkes wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of V. Gaubas vs M. Houkes — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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