L. Sonego vs T. Griekspoor — prediction

Montreal

SONEGOWIN PROBABILITYGRIEKSPOOR

54%

model prob.

@1.98

odds · 51% impl.

⚔H2H 2–0 Sonego⏱Rest 19d vs 7d◐Hard 49%🎾Serve 70%📈Form 5/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

20°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

90%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

20 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #83 vs #67

›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches

›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor

›More rested: 19d vs opponent's 7d

Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.85

fair odds

+7.1%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes L. Sonego the favorite with a 54% win probability, against T. Griekspoor's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.85; the offered odds are around @1.98 (a 51% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #83 vs #67; 5/10 in recent matches; 1-0 in favor; 19d vs opponent's 7d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 54%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Griekspoor wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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