MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-03
● HARD
K. Majchrzak vs G. Monfils — prediction
MAJCHRZAKWIN PROBABILITYMONFILS
69%
model prob.
@1.31
odds · 76% impl.
◐Hard 52%🎾Serve 69%📈Form 7/10
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
20°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
90%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
20 km/h
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #72 vs #218 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›Model 69% vs market 76% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.