Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl — prediction

Montreal

AGUILARWIN PROBABILITYDRAXL

71%

model prob.

@1.75

odds · 57% impl.

⏱Rest 13d vs 8d🎾Serve 64%📈Form 6/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

20°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

90%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

20 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #59 vs #147 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches

›Model 71% vs market 57% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds

Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.42

fair odds

+23.5%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes Daniel Merida Aguilar the favorite with a 71% win probability, against Liam Draxl's 29% — a solid favorite, though Draxl keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.42; the offered odds are around @1.75 (a 57% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #59 vs #147 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; model 71% vs market 57% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 71%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 29 out of every 100 times Draxl wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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