A. Mannarino vs J. Fearnley — prediction

The model makes A. Mannarino the favorite with a 72% win probability, against J. Fearnley's 28% — a solid favorite, though Fearnley keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.39; the offered odds are around @2.50 (a 40% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #47 vs #159 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; model 72% vs market 40% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 72%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 28 out of every 100 times Fearnley wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.