T. Korpatsch vs R. Zarazua — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #81 vs #75
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 3 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
›Model 61% vs market 42% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
The model makes T. Korpatsch the favorite with a 61% win probability, against R. Zarazua's 39% — a solid favorite, though Zarazua keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.65; the offered odds are around @2.39 (a 42% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #81 vs #75; 5/10 in recent matches; 3 wins in a row; 3 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 61%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 39 out of every 100 times Zarazua wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.