Martin Landaluce vs Nicolas Mejia — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Surface feeds the model — surface specialization is one of its factors.
›Ranking: #60 vs #165 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches
›Hard specialist: performs +16% above baseline (55% career on the surface)
!Coming off 4 losses in a row
!Returning from a long layoff (34d) — possible rustiness
The model makes Martin Landaluce the favorite with a 70% win probability, against Nicolas Mejia's 30% — a solid favorite, though Mejia keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.42; the offered odds are around @1.42 (a 70% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #60 vs #165 (better ranked); 4/10 in recent matches; performs +16% above baseline (55% career on the surface).
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 70%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Mejia wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 4 losses in a row; Returning from a long layoff (34d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.