Kyrian Jacquet vs Gabriel Diallo — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #134 vs #88
›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches
›Hard specialist: performs +7% above baseline (40% career on the surface)
The model makes Kyrian Jacquet the favorite with a 51% win probability, against Gabriel Diallo's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.95; the offered odds are around @2.10 (a 48% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #134 vs #88; 4/10 in recent matches; performs +7% above baseline (40% career on the surface).
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Diallo wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.