A. Mannarino vs J. Fearnley — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #40 vs #159 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Model 73% vs market 40% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (31d) — possible rustiness
The model makes A. Mannarino the favorite with a 73% win probability, against J. Fearnley's 27% — a solid favorite, though Fearnley keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.36; the offered odds are around @2.53 (a 40% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #40 vs #159 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; model 73% vs market 40% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 73%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 27 out of every 100 times Fearnley wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (31d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.