T. Droguet vs D. Svrcina — prediction

Montreal

DROGUETWIN PROBABILITYSVRCINA

56%

model prob.

@1.65

odds · 61% impl.

⏱Rest 10d vs 1d🎾Serve 62%📈Form 7/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

26°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

55%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

12 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #114 vs #114 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches

Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.79

fair odds

−8.0%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes T. Droguet the favorite with a 56% win probability, against D. Svrcina's 44% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.79; the offered odds are around @1.65 (a 61% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #114 vs #114 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 56%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 44 out of every 100 times Svrcina wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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