MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-01
● HARD
Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo — prediction
JODARWIN PROBABILITYTABILO
52%
model prob.
@1.42
odds · 70% impl.
⚔H2H 0–1 Jodar⏱Rest 1d vs 2d◐Hard 46%🎾Serve 64%📈Form 8/10 · 3✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
33°C
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humidity◇
33%
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Wind◇
16 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #26 vs #30 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 0-1 against
›More rested: 29d vs opponent's 10d
›Model 52% vs market 70% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
WATCH FOR
!Returning from a long layoff (29d) — possible rustiness
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-1)
Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.