ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-08-01
M. Alves vs W. Leite — prediction
M15 Sao Paulo
ALVESWIN PROBABILITYLEITE
66%
Elo prob.
@1.10
odds · 91% impl.
⚔H2H 1–1 Alves📈Form 7/10 · 3✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Temperature◇
26°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
27%
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Wind◇
9 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Context we publish for you: these conditions do NOT move the model probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1679 vs 1560 — favorite by rating
›ITF tier · 286 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.