ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-08-01

G. Shebekin vs Z. Nurlanuly — prediction

M15 Astana

SHEBEKINWIN PROBABILITYNURLANULY

62%

Elo prob.

@2.05

odds · 49% impl.

📈Form 8/10 · 3✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Temperature◇

30°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

39%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

16 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Context we publish for you: these conditions do NOT move the model probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1578 vs 1496 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 54 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.63

fair odds

+26.1%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes G. Shebekin the favorite with a 62% win probability, against Z. Nurlanuly's 38% — a solid favorite, though Nurlanuly keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.63; the offered odds are around @2.05 (a 49% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: 1578 vs 1496 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 54 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 38 out of every 100 times Nurlanuly wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of G. Shebekin vs Z. Nurlanuly — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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