D. Shapovalov vs A. Gea — prediction

Los Cabos

SHAPOVALOVWIN PROBABILITYGEA

66%

model prob.

@1.61

odds · 62% impl.

🎾Serve 63%📈Form 5/10 · 4✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

33°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

56%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

18 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #41 vs #135 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches

WATCH FOR

!Returning from a long layoff (45d) — possible rustiness

Calibrated model probability (~65% out-of-sample accuracy). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.51

fair odds

+6.9%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes D. Shapovalov the favorite with a 66% win probability, against A. Gea's 34% — a solid favorite, though Gea keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.51; the offered odds are around @1.61 (a 62% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #41 vs #135 (better ranked); 3/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 66%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 34 out of every 100 times Gea wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (45d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of D. Shapovalov vs A. Gea — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access