ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-31

O. Jasika vs Y. Ibraimi — prediction

M15 Brisbane 2

JASIKAWIN PROBABILITYIBRAIMI

68%

Elo prob.

@1.08

odds · 93% impl.

⏱Rest 3d vs 2d🎾Serve 58%📈Form 7/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Temperature◇

18°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

60%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

10 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Context we publish for you: these conditions do NOT move the model probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1627 vs 1497 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 315 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.47

fair odds

−26.6%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes O. Jasika the favorite with a 68% win probability, against Y. Ibraimi's 32% — a solid favorite, though Ibraimi keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.47; the offered odds are around @1.08 (a 93% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1627 vs 1497 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 315 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 32 out of every 100 times Ibraimi wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of O. Jasika vs Y. Ibraimi — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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