ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-30

M. Bouzige vs S. Hazawa — prediction

M15 Brisbane 2

BOUZIGEWIN PROBABILITYHAZAWA

61%

Elo prob.

@1.48

odds · 68% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Bouzige⏱Rest 1d vs 2d📈Form 5/10 · 2✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Temperature◇

19°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

56%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

7 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Context we publish for you: these conditions do NOT move the model probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1597 vs 1523 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 305 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.65

fair odds

−10.4%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes M. Bouzige the favorite with a 61% win probability, against S. Hazawa's 39% — a solid favorite, though Hazawa keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.65; the offered odds are around @1.48 (a 68% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1597 vs 1523 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 305 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 39 out of every 100 times Hazawa wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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