HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Pereira●●●
Elo gap (1653 vs 1325) and 87% model probability reflect a clear class difference favoring Pereira.
Form▸ Pereira●●
Pereira is 4-6 in his last 10 (streak -2) while Hrazdil is 0-10 with a 14-match losing streak.
Serve/return▸ Pereira●●
Pereira wins 62% of service points and 38% on return, a balanced profile; no comparable data exists for Hrazdil.
Rest= Even●
Rest is similar (8 vs 7 days), but Pereira played twice as many matches in 14 days (4 vs 2), a mild fatigue factor.
CLASS GAP
The Elo differential (1653 vs 1325) is substantial for this level, translating into an 87% model probability for Pereira. This gap is the single largest driver of the forecast and outweighs any secondary factor in the data.
Ranking context reinforces this: Pereira sits at No. 371 with a stable trend (0), while no ranking data exists for Hrazdil, consistent with a much lower profile that aligns with the Elo split.
FORM DIVERGENCE
Recent form sharply favors Pereira. His 4-6 record over the last 10 matches, though modest, contrasts starkly with Hrazdil's 0-10 stretch and a 14-match losing streak — a pattern of sustained struggle rather than a single slump.
This form gap supports the Elo-based favoritism rather than contradicting it, suggesting the rating gap is not simply a stale number but matches current competitive levels.
SERVE PROFILE
Pereira's 62% service-points-won rate is a real strength, and his 38% on return points adds a workable return game, giving him a complete profile on paper. No serve or return numbers exist for Hrazdil, so a direct style comparison isn't possible from this data alone.
Without surface or weather details, it's not possible to project how these serve numbers would shift in context — the 62%/38% split stands as a raw baseline reference rather than a surface-adjusted edge.
VALUE READ
At odds of 1.04, the market implies a 96% win probability for Pereira, well above the model's 87% estimate — producing a -9.6% expected value. Even with Pereira as a clear on-paper favorite, this gap means the price offers no edge; if anything, it's priced tighter than the model justifies.
This is an Elo-based estimate from a soft ITF market, where mispricing is harder to confirm live. The takeaway is straightforward: Pereira is favored to win, but the current odds do not represent value at this price.
Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). Soft-market estimate: the value is unproven live. 18+ · gamble responsibly.