ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-28

Ja. Delaney vs J. Charlton — prediction

M15 Brisbane 2
✓ Correct
DELANEYWIN PROBABILITYCHARLTON
74%
Elo prob.
@1.28
odds · 78% impl.
⚔H2H 4–2 Delaney⏱Rest 2d vs 7d🎾Serve 53%📈Form 9/10 · 5✓
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1661 vs 1478 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 409 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.35
fair odds
−5.1%
expected value
HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Delaney●●●
Delaney's Elo edge (1661 vs 1478) drives a 74% model probability, a clear rating gap in his favor.
Head-to-head▸ Delaney●●
Delaney leads the series 4-2 and has won 3 of the last 4 meetings in 2025.
Form▸ Delaney●●●
Delaney is on a 5-match win streak (WWWWLWWWWW) while Charlton is 2-match losing (WLWLWLLWLL), a sharp momentum gap.
Rest▸ Charlton●●
Charlton has 7 days rest and only 3 matches in 14 days vs Delaney's 2 days rest and 10 matches, favoring Charlton's freshness.
Serve/return▸ Delaney●
Delaney's 53% serve and 43% return points show a balanced game, though no comparable Charlton numbers exist to size the gap.
Market value= Even●●
Market prices Delaney at 78% implied vs the model's 74%, producing a -5.1% EV at 1.28 odds — no edge here.
LEVEL AND MOMENTUM

Delaney's rating advantage (1661 vs 1478) is reinforced by his current form: a five-match win streak against Charlton's two-match skid. Together these point to a real quality gap on paper, with the Elo model translating that gap into a 74% win probability for Delaney.

This isn't just a ratings story — the recent match results back it up. Charlton's WLWLWLLWLL pattern suggests inconsistency, while Delaney's WWWWLWWWWW shows he's finding rhythm heading into this match.

HEAD-TO-HEAD EDGE

The six-match series favors Delaney 4-2, and more importantly, he has won three of the last four meetings in 2025, including two ITF-level wins. This recent head-to-head trend aligns with the Elo gap rather than contradicting it, adding confidence to the favorite's edge.

Charlton's lone win in this stretch came at Challenger level, suggesting he can compete at a higher tier but has struggled to convert that against Delaney in ITF matches specifically.

FATIGUE FACTOR

Schedule load cuts against Delaney here: he's played 10 matches in the last 14 days and enters on just 2 days of rest, having reached a final at this same M15 Brisbane event 2 days ago. Charlton, by contrast, has had a lighter 3 matches in 14 days and a full week to recover.

This kind of workload difference can matter over best-of-three sets, particularly late in a match if legs tire. It's a real counterweight to Delaney's level and form advantages, even if the data doesn't let us quantify how many percentage points it costs him.

VALUE READ

Being the favorite is not the same as holding value. The model gives Delaney 74%, but the market is pricing him even higher at an implied 78%, which results in a -5.1% expected value at 1.28 odds. In other words, the market has already priced in more confidence in Delaney than the model itself justifies.

This is a soft ITF market estimate (Elo-based), so any edge — positive or negative — should be treated cautiously rather than acted on directly. The honest read: Delaney is the more likely winner on level, form, and head-to-head, but the price does not offer backing value at 1.28.

Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). Soft-market estimate: the value is unproven live. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

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