HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Tauson●●●
Tauson leads on Elo (1698 vs 1645) and ranking (#30 vs #46); the baseline model gives her 59% vs 46%, a real quality edge.
Serve/return▸ Tauson●●●
Tauson wins 60% of serve points against Cocciaretto's 37% return, a 23-point gap that should let her hold with ease.
Form▸ Tauson●●
Cocciaretto is 4-6 over her last 10 with a 4-match losing streak, while Tauson is 5-5 with just a 1-match skid.
Rest▸ Cocciaretto●●
Cocciaretto is fresh after 28 days off with no matches in two weeks, while Tauson has played 4 matches in 14 days, risking fatigue.
Market value= Even●●●
Model gives Tauson 59% but the market implies 71% at odds 1.40, yielding a -16.7% EV — no backable edge.
LEVEL GAP
Tauson sits at Elo 1698 to Cocciaretto's 1645, a 53-point gap that lines up with her better ranking (#30 vs #46). The baseline factor model converts this into a 59% to 46% split before other adjustments, pointing to a real but moderate quality advantage rather than a lopsided mismatch.
SERVE VS RETURN BATTLE
The service numbers favor Tauson on both ends of the court: she wins 60% of her own service points against Cocciaretto's 37% return rate, a 23-point gap that should let her hold comfortably through the match. On return, Tauson's 41% mark also cuts into Cocciaretto's 53% service success, giving her more realistic break chances than she is likely to concede in reverse.
FORM AND RUST
Cocciaretto arrives on a four-match losing streak (4-6 across her last 10), while Tauson is 5-5 over the same span with only a single-match dip, suggesting sharper competitive rhythm heading in. Rest complicates the picture: Cocciaretto has had 28 days off with zero matches in the last two weeks, giving her fresh legs but no recent match sharpness, while Tauson has played four matches in 14 days, which helps rhythm but can also add fatigue over a longer contest.
VALUE CHECK
The model prices Tauson at 59%, clearly below the market's implied 71% at odds of 1.40, producing a -16.7% expected value. Tauson is the more probable winner on the underlying quality metrics, but the current price does not offer value — being the favorite here is not the same as being a good bet.
Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). The model ≈ the market on average; the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.