MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-07-27

A. Li vs M. Frech — prediction

Result pending
LIWIN PROBABILITYFRECH
61%
model prob.
@1.53
odds · 65% impl.
⚔H2H 2–0 Li⏱Rest 11d vs 28d🎾Serve 58%📈Form 4/10
THE MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #31 vs #44 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches

›Head-to-head: 2-0 in favor

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.63
fair odds
−6.0%
expected value
HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Li●●●
Li's Elo 1636 and #31 ranking top Frech's 1556/#44; baseline model also favors Li 51% to 37%.
Serve/return▸ Li●●●
Li serves 58% vs Frech's 36% return, and Frech's 56% serve faces Li's stronger 42% return — edge on both ends.
Form▸ Li●●
Li is 4-6 in her last 10 (streak -1) while Frech is 2-8 with a 4-match losing streak, showing sharper current level.
Rest▸ Li●
Li played 2 matches in the last 14 days versus Frech's 0 in 28 days, giving Li more recent match rhythm despite less recovery time.
Head-to-head▸ Li●
Li leads 2-0 in prior meetings, including a 2026 win, though the small sample limits its weight.
Value/EV= Even●●●
Model gives Li 61% versus the market's implied 67% (odds 1.50), producing a -7.9% EV — no edge despite being favorite.
LEVEL AND RATING GAP

Li holds a clear standing advantage: an Elo rating of 1636 against Frech's 1556, paired with a better ranking (#31 vs #44). The baseline model reflects this gap directly, giving Li a 51% expected win rate against 37% for Frech before other factors are layered in — a solid structural edge built on sustained results rather than a single data point.

SERVE AND RETURN MATCHUP

The service numbers reinforce Li's edge on both sides of the ball. She wins 58% of her service points, well above Frech's 42% return rate, suggesting Li should hold comfortably. On the return, Li's 42% return-points-won stacks up favorably against Frech's 56% serve, meaning Li is better equipped to generate break chances than Frech is to defend her serve consistently.

FORM AND SHARPNESS

Recent form tilts toward Li as well: she is 4-6 over her last 10 matches with a modest one-match losing streak, while Frech has won just 2 of her last 10 and is mired in a 4-match skid. Match rhythm also favors Li slightly — she has played twice in the last two weeks, whereas Frech's last outing was 28 days ago, meaning she returns from a long layoff without recent competitive reps.

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY

Li has won both previous meetings, including a match earlier in 2026, giving her a psychological and tactical familiarity edge. With only two meetings on record, this history is a supporting data point rather than a decisive one, but it aligns with the broader pattern of Li's advantage across ranking, serve/return, and form.

VALUE ASSESSMENT

Despite the multiple factors favoring Li, the model's 61% win probability sits below the market's implied 67% at odds of 1.50, producing a -7.9% expected value. This means the market has already priced in Li's advantages, and then some — backing the favorite here does not represent good value under this model. Being the more likely winner is not the same as being a profitable bet, and on these numbers the market is pricing this closer to a sure thing than the model supports.

Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). The model ≈ the market on average; the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

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