M. Dellavedova vs S. Hazawa — prediction
›Tour Elo: 1769 vs 1506 — favorite by rating
›ITF tier · 413 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
The Elo differential here is substantial — 1769 for Dellavedova against 1506 for Hazawa, a gap of over 260 points that, in this soft ITF market, still signals a meaningful class difference built from 413 tracked matches on the favorite's side.
This isn't an ATP-grade factor model, so the number should be read as a rough indicator of level rather than a precise probability. Still, directionally it aligns with the market's own 87% implied price, reinforcing that Dellavedova is the stronger player by rating.
Recent form adds another layer favoring the favorite: Dellavedova has won 8 of his last 10 matches, while Hazawa has managed only 3 wins in the same span, including a stretch of five straight losses before his current small uptick.
Physical freshness compounds this. Hazawa played as recently as 1 day ago and has logged 3 matches in the last week, while Dellavedova has had 6 days to recover. That schedule congestion is a tangible drag on Hazawa heading into this match.
The head-to-head record complicates the picture slightly: in their only previous meeting, in 2026, Hazawa came out on top. With just one match played between them, this is a low-confidence signal, but it does show Hazawa is capable of beating Dellavedova on a given day.
Given the sample size of one, this factor should not outweigh the much larger body of Elo and form data, but it's a legitimate reminder that the favorite has not always closed out this matchup.
At odds of 1.15, the market implies an 87% win probability for Dellavedova, while the model lands at 82%. That gap produces a negative expected value of -5.8%, meaning the price is already tighter than what the data supports.
Being the favorite here is not the same as being a value play — the market has priced Dellavedova even more heavily than the model does. With this method categorized as a soft Elo estimate for Challenger/ITF events, any perceived edge remains unproven, and the honest read is that there is no value backing this favorite at this price.
Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). Soft-market estimate: the value is unproven live. 18+ · gamble responsibly.