ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-07-21

K. Ivanovski vs A. Chayka — prediction

M25 Ollersbach
✓ Correct
IVANOVSKIWIN PROBABILITYCHAYKA
84%
Elo prob.
@1.06
odds · 94% impl.
📈Form 9/10 · 5✓
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1718 vs 1434 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 185 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.19
fair odds
−11.3%
expected value
HOW EACH FACTOR MATTERS
Level (Elo/ranking)▸ Ivanovski●●●
Elo 1718 vs 1434 gives Ivanovski an 84% model probability, a substantial rating gap in this ITF field.
Form▸ Ivanovski●●
Ivanovski's last10 reads WWWWLWWWWW with a current 5-match win streak, showing consistent recent form.
Rest= Even●
16 days since Ivanovski's last match and zero matches in the last 14 days could mean freshness or slight match rust.
Value▸ Chayka●●●
Odds of 1.06 imply 94% win probability, above the model's 84%, producing a -11.3% expected value — no edge here.
LEVEL GAP

The Elo gap of 1718 to 1434 is the clearest signal in this match, translating into an 84% model probability for Ivanovski. In a 185-match ITF track record, that rating difference reflects a meaningful skill gap, even though Elo in this tier is a softer, less-analyzed estimate than tour-level ratings.

This gap is the primary driver of the favorite tag, but it should be read as a rating-based estimate rather than a precise measure of on-court quality, given the tier's data limitations.

FORM AND MOMENTUM

Ivanovski arrives with a 9-1 record over his last 10 matches and is currently riding a 5-match win streak. This recent run reinforces the Elo-based edge, suggesting he is playing at or above his rating level right now.

No comparable form data exists for Chayka, so this factor can only be assessed one-sided — it adds to the favorite's case without a direct counterweight.

RUST OR FRESHNESS

Ivanovski has not played in 16 days and had zero matches in the past two weeks. This layoff could mean he is fully rested, but it also removes the sharpness that comes from recent competitive play, a minor uncertainty worth noting rather than a strong signal either way.

Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). Soft-market estimate: the value is unproven live. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

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